Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
