Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.