Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
